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Appendix D: Downscaling Regional Results to Estimate Impacts in the City of Arcata
This section provides an overview of the methodology used to downscale the regional IMPLAN results to estimate the portion of HSU’s economic activity generated in the City of Arcata.
In order to downscale the results, ICF found the proportion Humboldt County’s economic activity occurring in the City of Arcata. These estimates were based on three key metrics from the 2012 Economic Census of the U.S. including (1) Value of sales, shipments, receipts, revenue, or business done, (2) Annual payroll, and (3) Number of employees. Table D1 below shows the three economic metrics for both Humboldt County and the City of Arcata.
Table D1: USCB Economy-Wide Key Statistics: 2012
| Geographic Area | Value of sales, shipments, receipts, revenue, or business done ($1,000) |
Annual payroll ($1,000) | Number of employees |
|---|---|---|---|
| Humboldt County, CA | $3,706,444 | $885,813 | 29,864 |
| Arcata City, CA | $683,959 | $178,704 | 6,899 |
| Arcata Percent of Total | 18% | 20% | 23% |
These proportions were applied to output metrics from the IMPLAN analysis. Employment and tax revenues were scaled based on the number of employees, labor income was scaled based on annual payroll, and output was scaled based on the value of sales, shipments, receipts, revenue, or business done.
The downscaled estimates of employment, labor income, industry activity and tax impact are likely conservative estimates of the total economic activity generated in Arcata. This is due to the fact that HSU’s direct spending occurs within city limits, and thus the total economic impact in Arcata is likely higher than the average City-County relationship for each factor provided by the U.S. Economic Census metrics.